Title:
Sweaty Humans in a GCM: When and Where Are the First Unlivable Places on Earth?
Sweaty Humans in a GCM: When and Where Are the First Unlivable Places on Earth?
Speaker:
盧奕銓 (Yi-Chuan Lu), PhD candidate, UC Berkeley
盧奕銓 (Yi-Chuan Lu), PhD candidate, UC Berkeley
Time:
09/12 (Sat.) 5 pm PDT, 6 pm MDT, 7 pm CDT, 8 pm EDT
09/13 (Sun.) 8 am Taiwan
09/12 (Sat.) 5 pm PDT, 6 pm MDT, 7 pm CDT, 8 pm EDT
09/13 (Sun.) 8 am Taiwan
Keywords:
Atmospheric Science, Climate Change, GeoHealth, Thermoregulation
Atmospheric Science, Climate Change, GeoHealth, Thermoregulation
Abstract:
We add a prognostic model of several naked, sweat-covered humans to each grid cell of ten different global climate models (GCMs), and we evaluate their core body temperatures every 15 minutes for the entirety of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario. Designed to model the response to extreme heat, this model of human thermoregulation avoids the uncertain empirical relations used in other thermoregulation models, such as the skin blood flow rate and sweat rate. The model is validated against physiological data and its implementation in each GCM is bias-corrected to guarantee a match of historical simulations with ERA-5 reanalysis. Although simple and computationally efficient, the model accounts for longwave and shortwave fluxes, sensible and latent fluxes, body size and albedo, and the level of physical exertion. The resulting data reveal the places that will become uninhabitable by 2100 by different metrics, such as the occurrence of days during which it is lethal to work and/or rest in sun and/or shade.
We add a prognostic model of several naked, sweat-covered humans to each grid cell of ten different global climate models (GCMs), and we evaluate their core body temperatures every 15 minutes for the entirety of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario. Designed to model the response to extreme heat, this model of human thermoregulation avoids the uncertain empirical relations used in other thermoregulation models, such as the skin blood flow rate and sweat rate. The model is validated against physiological data and its implementation in each GCM is bias-corrected to guarantee a match of historical simulations with ERA-5 reanalysis. Although simple and computationally efficient, the model accounts for longwave and shortwave fluxes, sensible and latent fluxes, body size and albedo, and the level of physical exertion. The resulting data reveal the places that will become uninhabitable by 2100 by different metrics, such as the occurrence of days during which it is lethal to work and/or rest in sun and/or shade.
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